USD The US yield curve is inverted and according to the past evidence it points to a recession. The 10-year yield was lower than the 3m yield. After yield curve inverts it can take substantial time, usually more than 11 months, for the recession to...

USD FED has left the interest rate unchanged as expected. Labour market has remained strong and on average job gains have been solid. They will begin to slow balance sheet runoff in May and will end it in September if the economy evolves as expected....

USD Advanced retail sales form the month of January came in 0.2% m/m vs 0% as expected. Ex auto category came in at 0.9% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected and control group, which has influence on inflation, came in at 1.1% m/m vs 0.6% m/m as expected. Encouraging...

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing index came in at 59.7 vs 57.4 as expected with prior reading showing 56.7.  This is a strong result for the service sector lead by highest jump in new orders since 2005. Trade balance for the month of December came in...

USD Over the weekend President Trump has opted to postpone a tariff hike on Chinese imports stating that positive progress has been made in on-going negotiations. Housing starts for December came in at 1078k vs 1256k as expected with a drop of -11.2...

USD FED’s Williams stated that rates are already at neutral level. It is a sign that the FED will be in no rush to hike. Policymakers are increasingly pointing to risks abroad as a justification to wait. That means that even months of positive US e...

Please note that President’s day is on Monday Feb 18, financial institutions will not be working therefore liquidity in the markets will be lower which can lead to volatile movements. USD CPI for the month of January came in at 1.6% y/y vs 1.5% y/y a...

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7 vs 57.1 as expected. New export orders had a tumble from 59.5 to 50.5 showing that a slowdown abroad is taking place. This is the worst new export orders reading in two years. Although data came in worse...

USD The US Congressional Budget Office lowered its estimates of the US fiscal deficit for the 2019 fiscal year. They now see the deficit at $897 billion compared to the $981 billion deficit in the April estimate. That's 4.2% of GDP instead of 4.6%. The...

USD IMF cut the global growth forecast to 3.5% for 2019 which is the lowest in 3 years; they see growth in 2020 to be at 3.6%.  They maintain USD growth forecast at 2.5% for 2019 and 1.8% for 2020. Risk to global growth are tilted to the downside...