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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 6, 2018)


The US dollar regained some ground to its peers but caved to the Aussie and Kiwi when risk appetite returned in the US session.

Economic data was better than expected as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell from 59.9 to 59.5 versus the estimated tumble to 58.9. However, it's worth noting that the prices and employment components posted steep declines. Only factory orders and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index are due today.


The euro had a mixed run as medium-tier data barely provided support. Final services PMI readings from the region's top economies came in mostly weaker than expected. Only the retail PMI is due today but traders may be positioning ahead of the ECB statement.


The pound staged quite a rebound from the previous selloff as PM May's speech provided some assurance and UK services PMI beat expectations. The reading rose from 53.0 to 54.5 versus the consensus at 53.3. There are no major reports due from the UK today so the focus could return to Brexit.


The franc returned some of its safe-haven winnings as risk appetite improved towards the end of the day. There were no reports out of Switzerland then while today has the CPI due. A rebound of 0.3% from the earlier 0.1% dip is eyed.


The yen caved to dollar strength and returned some of its winnings to the Aussie and Kiwi when risk appetite peeked back. There have been no major reports out of Japan so far and none are due today, so market sentiment could be the main driver.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot despite the pickup in crude oil and sentiment. NAFTA concerns and remaining fears of a trade war still weighed on the Canadian currency as it stands to be the worst-hit if Trump pushes through with his tariff plans. Economic data from Australia has been weaker than expected today, with the current account deficit widening from 11 billion AUD to 14 billion versus the estimated 12.3 billion AUD shortfall. Retail sales also disappointed with a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain. The RBA decision is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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