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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 11, 2013)


The U.S. dollar had quite a topsy-turvy ride at the start of the U.S. session when the FOMC meeting minutes were suddenly released early. 

However, price action soon settled down when the minutes revealed nothing special in particular. Fed officials still remained divided on the issue of tapering off asset purchases as many believe that the U.S. is still on shaky ground. On top of that, most traders disregarded the report as the remarks were made prior to the dismal March NFP release. For today, only the initial jobless claims report is due from the U.S. economy and the figure is projected to come in at 362K, lower than the previous week’s 385K.


The euro let go of some of its recent gains against the U.S. dollar as the 1.3100 major psychological level held as resistance in yesterday’s trading. Euro zone data came in mixed with French industrial production coming in strong and Italian industrial production posting a weaker than expected reading. Only minor reports are on tap from the euro zone again today as the ECB monthly bulletin might be the most relevant report for the day.


The pound fought to stay above the 1.5300 handle against the U.S. dollar despite the lack of market-moving reports yesterday. For today, the U.K. schedule is still empty, which suggests we could see more consolidation for GBP/USD.


Just like its other European counterparts, the Swissy had an empty economic schedule yesterday which kept USD/CHF and EUR/CHF stuck in their respective ranges. There are no reports due from Switzerland again today which suggests we could see more sideways movement from franc pairs.


After a few moments of consolidation, the Japanese yen resumed selling off against its major counterparts, particularly after the FOMC meeting minutes were released. Japanese core machinery orders came in stronger than expected as it showed a 7.5% increase, but this wasn’t enough to support the Japanese yen. There are no other reports due from Japan for the rest of today’s trading sessions, leaving yen pairs to rally on the BOJ’s recent easing efforts.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The Australian dollar sold off a few hours into the Asian session when Australia printed a very weak jobs report. Hiring is down by 36.1K, worse than the estimated 6.7K drop, bringing the jobless rate up from 5.4% to 5.6% for March. However, Chinese new loans and M2 money supply came in strong, providing some support for the commodity currencies. No other reports are due from Australia, Canada, and New Zealand for the rest of the day, which suggests quiet trading for the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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