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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 18, 2018)

USD

The US dollar has been able to regain some ground recently thanks to strong medium-tier data and a pickup in bond yields on cooling geopolitical risks.

Industrial production and capacity utilization beat expectations, as well as building permits and housing starts. FOMC members have also dropped some optimistic remarks on economic growth and inflation, as well as the labor market.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains as ZEW economic sentiment readings fell short. Germany's ZEW reading tumbled from 5.1 to -8.2, way worse than the estimated -0.8 figure. The region's reading fell from 13.4 to 1.9 versus the 7.4 forecast. Final CPI readings are due next but no changes are eyed.

GBP

The pound also returned some of its winnings when the average earnings index fell short of estimates. Claimant count was better than expected at an 11.6K gain in joblessness versus the estimated 13.3K figure while the earlier reading enjoyed an upgrade. UK CPI is due next and stronger figures could revive BOE tightening hopes and sterling rallies.

CHF

The franc was one of the weaker performers as the improvement in risk appetite and the rise in US bond yields dampened demand for this lower-yielding currency. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot thanks to the pickup in risk-taking and dollar demand. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that yen pairs could take their cues from geopolitical risks or the lack thereof.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie extended its gains on another round of oil rallies stemming from a reduction in API stockpiles. This could lead to a similar drop in EIA crude oil inventories data, easing oversupply concerns. New Zealand has its CPI report due next and a 0.4% gain in price levels is eyed. The BOC has its rate statement lined up, along with a presser by Governor Poloz which could contain more upbeat remarks.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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