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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 12, 2013)


 The U.S. dollar could be in for another sharp selloff during today’s U.S. session as the retail sales report is set for release. 

Remember that the jobs data for March came in significantly weaker than expected at 88K versus the projected 198K reading, which suggests that consumer spending could also disappoint. March retail sales are projected to stay flat while the core figure could show a 0.1% downtick, lower than the previous month’s 1.0% increase. Also due during today’s New York session is the preliminary consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan, which is also expected to show a slight decline.


The euro continued to gain against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as dollar weakness propped the shared currency higher. Only minor reports, namely the German WPI and euro zone industrial production, are due from the region today and these aren’t likely to have a material impact on euro movement.


The pound packed on more gains against the Greenback, with GBP/USD climbing to the 1.5400 major psychological level. There were no major reports released from the U.K. recently and none are due today, suggesting that pound pairs could continue to take advantage of dollar and yen weakness.


 USD/CHF suffered another strong selloff, this time to the 0.9280 levels, as dollar weakness ensued. There were no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, which means that USD/CHF could react solely to the U.S. retail sales in the New York session.


The Japanese yen fought to hold on to its current levels against its major counterparts as the tertiary industry activity index provided a bit of support. The figure posted a 1.1% increase for February, better than the estimated 0.8% uptick. USD/JPY is stalling at the 99.50 area during the Asian session but we could see more action once the U.S. retail sales are printed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls had a strong start during yesterday’s Asian sessions as traders sought to take advantage of the carry opportunities between the higher-yielding commodity currencies and the lower-yielding yen and dollar. However, these gains were reversed later on as traders took profits off significant inflection points. There are no major releases from their economies later today as comdoll pairs could be affected heavily by the U.S. retail sales release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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