# Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sep 14 – Sep 18, 2026) Source: https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-sep-14-sep-18-2026/ Language: en Updated: 2026-09-11 Description: Forex major currencies outlook, Sep 14 – Sep 18, 2026: USD, EUR, GBP and JPY analysis, key economic events and weekly trade levels from Trader's Way. ## Week Ahead Summary Fed, BoE, BoJ meetings, inflation data from the UK and Canada, retail sales from the US and China, along with industrial production data from China, Q2 GDP from New Zealand and employment data from the UK will highlight the busy week ahead of us. ![Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sep 14 – Sep 18, 2026)] ## USD — US Dollar US and Iran pushed their hostilities to another level with US hitting Kharg Island and Iran retaliating by hitting US military bases in Jordan as well as US destroyers in the Straight of Hormuz. At the same time tensions between Houthis and Saudis are on the rise as rumours about Houthis hitting Saudi pipeline are circulating. As a result, WTI has crossed $100/bbl while Brent crude oil passed psychologically important price of $105/bbl. US escalated number of goods that will be hit by 50% tariffs and moved to ban imports of alcohol, dairies, motorcycles and certain autos as a response to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. US Treasury Secretary Bessent poked markets by saying “I am the house now” and dared traders to bet against JPY. Many people have found out how dangerous it is to get in conflict with markets so this is a high risk move. Treasury buyback was announced to the tune of $6bn. This is three times more than before, but less than what markets were looking for, which was around $!0bn. US President Trump promised $5000 pay check to every US adult if Republicans make a full sweep in the midterms. August CPI report showed headline number at 3.4% y/y, as expected and unchanged from July, rising 0.4% m/m also as expected. Core reading ticked down to 2.4% y/y, as expected, from 2.5% y/y the previous month but monthly figure came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% as expected. Supercore has surged 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% m/m in July and 3.022% y/y vs 2.843% y/y the previous month. This report pushes chances of September rate hike to over 80%. The yield on a 10y Treasury started the week at 4.79%, rose to new high for the year of 4.98% and finished the week at around 4.92%. The yield on 2y Treasury started the week at 4.37%, also rose to new high for the year of 4.60% and finished the week at around 4.60%. The yield on a 30y Treasury reached 5.39%, yet another new high for the year and level not seen since 2007. Spread between 2y and 10y Treasuries started the week at 41bp and finished the week at 34bp. FedWatchTool sees the probability of a no change at a September meeting at around 14% while probability of a 25bp rate hike is at around 86%. WTI prices surged during the week as US – Iran war escalated and price of WTI almost got to the $105/bbl. This week we will have Fed meeting and August retail sales report. We will get new SEP and dot plot but Chairman Warsh will abstain from delivering his forecast as he stated several times. Important news for USD: *Wednesday*:​ - Fed Interest Rate Decision - Retail Sales ## EUR — Euro ECB has raised its key interest rates by 25bp as was widely expected thus brining deposit rate to 2.50%. New projections show upward revisions to growth and inflation. GDP is now seen at 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028 while inflation is unchanged for 2026 at 3% but revised up for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. The statement shows that Middle East conflict continues to push prices higher and that inflation will stay elevated for prolonged period of time. The outlook remains highly uncertain with risks to the upside for inflation and downside for the growth. Governing Council will continue basing its decisions on inflation outlook and is not pre-committing to any rate path. ECB President Lagarde stated in her opening statement that economy is proving to be resilient and that resilience will continue into Q3. She characterized labour market as robust but warned that growth in employment continues to slow. Lagarde stated that there was no discussion about future rate hike path and added that today’s decision was unanimous and a “no-brainer” adding that inflation has been lower recently compared to what was expected, particularly food inflation. Lagarde’s press conference added to the notion that this was a hawkish hike and although they are not pre-committing October looks as likely for another rate hike. AfD, a German right wing political party won elections in Saxony-Anhalt. The population of Saxony-Anhalt is 2.3 million so the victory there does not have implications on a federal government but they have made steps to challenge powers in Berlin. Additionally, it shows declining popularity of current Chancellor Merz and his ruling party CDU. ## GBP — British Pound BoE Governor Bailey stated that risks to inflation are to the upside as energy prices push prices up and food prices seem tilted upwards as well. He sees labor market as softening and adds that increase in youth unemployment is a concern. July GDP surprised to the upside with 0.4% m/m growth while expectations were for it to come flat. IT sector was the biggest contributor, adding almost half to the total GDP, with services output overall increasing by 0.4% m/m. This week we will have employment data, inflation data, expected to move above the 3%, and BoE meeting. Expectations are for no change to rate with a 6-3 vote. Important news for GBP: *Tuesday*:​ - Payrolls Change​ - Unemployment Rate​ *Wednesday*:​ - CPI​ *Thursday*:​ - BoE Interest Rate Decision​ ## AUD — Australian Dollar RBA Deputy Governor Hauser stated that inflation represents “one big problem” for the central bank and added that it is a result of a three-headed monster: the Middle East crisis, an AI-driven global boom, and weak domestic supply capacity. He stated that question lingers whether they have done enough in fight against the inflation and markets interpreted it as a nod to the September hike. August inflation data saw CPI rise to 0.8% y/y, as expected, from 0.5% y/y in July. Energy prices were the main culprit for increase in inflation followed by high tech prices. On the other hand, food prices and rents were drag on inflation. PPI rose to 3.8% y/y from 3.5% y/y the previous month and stronger than 3.7% y/y as expected. Coal and crude oil prices were biggest contributors. This week we will have economic activity data from China. Important news for AUD: *Tuesday*:​ - Industrial Production (China)​ - Retail Sales (China)​ ## NZD — New Zealand Dollar August manufacturing PMI came in at 53.1, slowing down from 54.3 in July but still healthy in expansion and above long-term average of 52.5. Kiwi had a tough first part of the week as risk off mood in the markets caused it to decline against all of the majors. This week we will have Q2 GDP data. Important news for NZD: *Thursday*:​ - GDP​ ## CAD — Canadian Dollar CAD has had a sideways week as it was influenced by factors outside of its influence such as overall risk off mood in the markets and US – Iran developments. It managed to gain ground against Swissy but lost ground against other majors. This week we will have inflation data. BoC has flagged upside risks to inflation so if we get a hotter than expected print that will increase chances of a December hike and consequently strengthen the CAD. Important news for CAD: *Monday*:​ - CPI​ ## JPY — Japanese Yen Final Q2 GDP reading saw it revised up to 0.4% q/q and 1.4% annualized from 0.3% q/q and 1.1% annualized as preliminary reported. Private consumption stayed flat while business investment was revised up now showing a 0.9% decline compared to 1% decline as preliminary reported. Net export contribution was unchanged at 0.5pp. July wages showed average cash earnings rising 4.7% y/y after an upwardly revised 4% y/y growth in June. Additionally, real wages rose for the seventh consecutive months and printed 2.4% y/y growth for the biggest real wages increase since May of 2021. These two data points indicate that rate hike next week is a certainty. This week we will have BoJ meeting. Rate hike is almost fully priced in, lifting rate to 1.25%, so the attention will be focused on the rate path. Important news for JPY: *Friday*:​ - BoJ Interest Rate Decision​ ## CHF — Swiss Franc SNB total sight deposits for the week ending September 4 came in at CHF452.6bn vs CHF457.3bn the previous week. Deposits continue their downward trajectory and reach lowest levels in seven months as SNB keeps pumping liquidity into the markets to influence Swissy’s strength. You can follow all economic events on the [Economic Calendar](https://www.tradersway.com/resources/economic_calendar) page on our Website. MT server time is set to GMT+3 and if you need assistance converting MT server time to your local time you can use some of the online time converters such as [WorldTimeBuddy](https://www.worldtimebuddy.com/). Please note that this analysis should not be used as investing advice as it is only an overview of the economic events influencing the markets. Please remember that our accounts have Market Execution. 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