# Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026) Source: https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/ Language: en Updated: 2026-10-19 Description: Forex major currencies outlook, Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026: USD, EUR, GBP and JPY analysis, key economic events and weekly trade levels from Trader's Way. ## Week Ahead Summary Inflation data from the UK, Canada and New Zealand coupled with Q3 GDP from China, employment data from the UK and preliminary October PMI data from the Eurozone and UK will highlight the week ahead of us. Q3 earnings continue with AT&T, IBM, Meta and Tesla all reporting this week. ![Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026)] ## USD — US Dollar Houthis continued strikes on Saudi Arabia and managed to hit Riyadh airport. Later in the week they have hit administrative Saudi Aramco building at Dhahran compound. On the other side, US and Russia struck a deal that will see Russia export 500k tons of diesel. Following that deal US President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine agreed to energy ceasefire thus preventing further Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Goldman Sachs reported that oil exports in the Persian Gulf rose to around 22mb/d. September CPI report showed headline number rise to 3.7% y/y from 3.4% y/y in August, more than 3.6% y/y as expected. Unrounded it printed 3.738% y/y, dangerously close to 3.8% y/y. Observed prices increased 0.6% m/m on the back of higher energy prices. Core reading jumped to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y the previous month with monthly reading showing a growth of 0.3% vs 0.2% as expected. Higher energy costs lifted inflation and pushed transportation services higher. Used cars, airfares and transportation services led the gains while medical care commodities showed biggest decline. Shelter rose 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y and supercore rose 3.13% y/y. PPI blew past expectations printing on headline 1.3% m/m and 0.7% m/m on core. Higher inflation pressures will increase odds of another Fed rate hike and should keep USD well supported, however it all reversed in the second part of the week as USD was sold and markets were pricing out future rate hikes. Retail sales for the month of September showed that American consumer continues to spend. Headline number showed an increase of 0.8% m/m compared to 0.3% m/m as expected while August print was revised higher to show a 1.3% m/m growth. Retail sales ex autos also had a strong month growing 0.9% m/m. Gasoline stations led the gains with a 6.4% monthly growth followed by furniture with 1.3% and food services and drinking places, a good proxy for discretionary spending, with 1.1%. Weakness was seen in control group, used for GDP calculation, as it rose only 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% m/m as expected and if we exclude via retail sales ex autos and gas we get a weak 0.2% m/m growth. Miscellaneous retailers as well as building materials and sporting goods stores saw declines on the month. The yield on a 10y Treasury started the week at 5.24%, spiking to 5.33% after the CPI report and finished the week at around 5.09%. The yield on 2y Treasury started the week at 4.77%, spiked to 4.93% after the CPI report and finished the week at around 4.74%. Spread between 2y and 10y Treasuries started the week at 45bp and finished the week slumping to 35bp. FedWatchTool sees the probability of a no change at a September meeting at around 83% while probability of a 25bp rate hike is at around 17%. ## EUR — Euro Final CPI reading for the month of September was unchanged with headline CPI at 3.8% y/y and core CPI at 2.5% y/y, up from 3.2% y/y and 2.4% y/y in August. Inflation was pushed up by energy prices which rose 4% m/m and 18.9% y/y. German was unchanged at 3.3% y/y. Energy prices were the main driver of inflation as they rose 3.8% m/m and 14.9% y/y. Core CPI stayed at 2.4% y/y, same as in August. French CPI was revised up to 3.1% y/y from 3% y/y as preliminary reported while core CPI surged to 1.5% y/y from 1.1% y/y the previous month. Spain CPI was also unchanged at 4.9% y/y but core reading showed prices rising 3.1% y/y compared to 2.9% y/y in August. This week we will have preliminary October PMI data expected to show slower growth. Important news for EUR: *Friday*:​ - Manufacturing PMI (Eurozone, Germany, France)​ - Services PMI (Eurozone, Germany, France)​ - Composite PMI (Eurozone, Germany, France)​ ## GBP — British Pound BoE MPC member Megan Greene, a hawkish member, warned that waiting for second-round inflation effects to show up and only acting then will make the bank too late. She stated that the bigger risk is not acting than raising rates too soon and added that according to her monetary policy is not that restrictive. BoE Governor Bailey took more measured, neutral approach stating that, so far, second-round effects have been subdued but added that it is still too early to create strong views. Bailey characterized UK economy as stronger than expected but still not strong as needed. This week we will have employment and inflation data with latter expected to show further rise above the 3% as well as preliminary PMI data for the month of October. Important news for GBP: *Tuesday*:​ - Payrolls Change​ - Unemployment Rate​ *Wednesday*:​ - CPI​ *Friday*:​ - Manufacturing PMI​ - Services PMI​ - Composite PMI​ ## AUD — Australian Dollar RBA minutes have been much more hawkish than Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. Members clarified that all three upside risks to prices, noted in August, materialized or were building. Those three are rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict, rising cost pressures from surging AI -related demand and much tighter domestic capacity than initially assumed. They stated that slower growth and weaker jobs market is the cost of returning inflation to target adding they would raise rates further if required. September was not a good month for jobs in Australia. The economy lost 39.3k jobs vs 20k job gains as expected and August reading was revised lower. The unemployment rate came in at 4.7%, higher than 4.6% as expected and previous month’s figure was revised up to 4.7% which is highest it has been since October of 2021. Participation rate plunged to 66.8% indicating that with unchanged participation the unemployment rate would be even higher. One bright spot in report was that economy added 34.4 full-time jobs but on the other hand part-time jobs plunged in the amount of 73.7k. Such a weak jobs report lowered chances of a November rate hike, but in this data-driven market quarterly CPI report on October 28 will be crucial for RBA’s decision. September inflation data from China saw CPI tick up to 0.9% y/y from 0.8% y/y in August, but less than 1% y/y as expected while the real shock was in PPI which surged to 5% y/y, level not seen since June of 2022, from 3.8% y/y the previous month. Higher raw material prices, mainly oil, are pushing factory prices up but luckily for consumers they are still not being fully transferred to them. September trade surplus continued to surge reaching $133.5bn for the month and $938.1bn for the first three quarters of 2026. This week we will have Q3 GDP and monthly economic activity data from China. Important news for AUD: *Monday*:​ - GDP (China)​ - Industrial Production (China)​ - Retail Sales (China)​ ## NZD — New Zealand Dollar RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway characterized their October meeting as completely open stating that decision will be whether to hold or hike by 25bp. They are still inclined to continue raising rates but are unsure on the timing of those hikes. He added that recent moves in oil and NZD have added further inflation pressures. RBNZ remains confident that they will bring inflation back to their targeted 1-3% range next year. Manufacturing PMI surged in September to 56.5 from 53.3 in August thus making it fifteen straight months in expansion. Finished stocks printed almost 60 followed by deliveries at 58.8 and new orders and production both at 57. This week we will have Q3 inflation data which is expected to come down. Important news for NZD: *Wednesday*:​ - CPI​ ## CAD — Canadian Dollar Building permits rebounded 8.8% m/m in September after plunging 15.8% m/m in August. Manufacturing sales for the same month rebounded 1.5% m/m more than 1.1% m/m as markets were expecting after a positively revised -0.3% m/m print in July. Wholesale trade, on the other hand, dropped -1.6% m/m by more than expected while previous month’s reading was revised up. CAD has enjoyed strong first part of the week but then after US CPI report it gave back all of its gains against ,majors, except from USD against which it strengthened. This week we will have inflation data expected to show further increase in both headline and core figures. Important news for CAD: *Monday*:​ - CPI​ ## JPY — Japanese Yen Core machinery orders, a good proxy for CAPEX spending 6-9 months into the future, rebounded in August and posted healthy increases of 5.2% m/m and 18.6% y/y. On the other hand, final industrial production reading for the month of August was revised down and showed a 2.4% m/m decline but a 2.7% y/y growth. BoJ Governor Ueda stated that stated at the IMF meeting that they will continue to raise rates as underlying inflation approaches their 2% target. Despite this, JPY strength seems to have topped as major JPY pairs are forming bottoming formation and look ready to move up. ## CHF — Swiss Franc SNB total sight deposits for the week ending October 9 came in at CHF456.4bn vs CHF464.2bn the previous week. After a run of four consecutive weeks of rising sight deposits we now have a drop and return to a longer downtrend indicating that SNB lets market dictate Swissy’s strength. You can follow all economic events on the [Economic Calendar](https://www.tradersway.com/resources/economic_calendar) page on our Website. MT server time is set to GMT+3 and if you need assistance converting MT server time to your local time you can use some of the online time converters such as [WorldTimeBuddy](https://www.worldtimebuddy.com/). Please note that this analysis should not be used as investing advice as it is only an overview of the economic events influencing the markets. Please remember that our accounts have Market Execution. Please note how Execution works during high impact news and other times of low liquidity. ## Structured data JSON-LD as served in the HTML version of this page. ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/#primary", "url": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/", "headline": "Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026)", "inLanguage": "en", "datePublished": "2026-10-19T07:18:17+00:00", "dateModified": "2026-10-19T07:18:17+00:00", "articleSection": "Market Info", "description": "Forex major currencies outlook, Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026: USD, EUR, GBP and JPY analysis, key economic events and weekly trade levels from Trader's Way.", "image": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.tradersway.com/wp-content/themes/tradersway/images/og-default.png" }, "author": { "@type": "Organization", "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization" }, "publisher": { "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": [ "Organization", "FinancialService" ], "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization", "name": "Trader's Way", "alternateName": "TradersWay", "legalName": "TW Corp LLC", "description": "Trader's Way is the trading brand of TW Corp LLC, a company registered in Anguilla under number A000001731. It provides online leveraged trading in forex, metals, energies, stock indices and cryptocurrencies through MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 and cTrader, with Market execution, a 40% stop out level and a minimum initial deposit of 10 USD. The company holds no financial services licence and does not direct its services to residents of the United States or the United Kingdom.", "url": "https://www.tradersway.com", "foundingDate": "2011", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://www.tradersway.com/wp-content/themes/tradersway/images/logo-square-512.png" }, "address": { "@type": "PostalAddress", "streetAddress": "No. 9 Cassius Webster Building, Grace Complex", "postOfficeBoxNumber": "1330", "addressLocality": "The Valley", "postalCode": "AI-2640", "addressCountry": "AI" }, "contactPoint": { "@type": "ContactPoint", "contactType": "customer support", "email": "support@tradersway.com" }, "areaServed": "Worldwide, excluding the United States and the United Kingdom", "knowsAbout": [ "Foreign exchange trading", "Contracts for difference", "Leveraged trading", "Precious metals trading", "Energy commodities trading", "Stock index trading", "Cryptocurrency trading", "MetaTrader 4", "MetaTrader 5", "cTrader" ], "sameAs": [ "https://www.trustpilot.com/review/www.tradersway.com", "https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/8129/tradersway-forex-brokers", "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChRC072YJGlNNNYhg_0hZeA", "https://www.facebook.com/tradersway.forex.broker", "https://twitter.com/TradersWay", "https://www.instagram.com/traderswayforex/", "https://t.me/tw_eng" ], "identifier": { "@type": "PropertyValue", "propertyID": "Anguilla company registration number", "value": "A000001731" }, "location": { "@type": "Place", "address": { "@type": "PostalAddress", "streetAddress": "Radnicka 147", "addressLocality": "Valjevo", "postalCode": "14000", "addressCountry": "RS" } } }, { "@type": "WebSite", "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#website", "url": "https://www.tradersway.com", "name": "Trader's Way", "publisher": { "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization" } }, { "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/#breadcrumb", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 1, "name": "Home", "item": "https://www.tradersway.com/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 2, "name": "Resources", "item": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 3, "name": "Market Info", "item": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/" }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": 4, "name": "Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 19 – Oct 23, 2026)", "item": "https://www.tradersway.com/resources/market-info/forex-major-currencies-outlook-oct-19-oct-23-2026/" } ] } ] } ``` ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Person", "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#wayne-mcdonell", "name": "Wayne McDonell", "jobTitle": "Chief FX Strategist", "description": "Chief FX Strategist at Trader's Way, trading forex publicly since 2004. His analysis has appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Television, Fox Business, Futures Magazine and FOREX Journal Magazine. Author of \"Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading\".", "worksFor": { "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization" }, "knowsAbout": [ "Foreign exchange market", "Technical analysis", "Fundamental analysis", "Forex trading strategy" ], "sameAs": [ "https://www.youtube.com/c/tradersway" ] }, { "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#organization", "employee": { "@id": "https://www.tradersway.com/#wayne-mcdonell" } } ] } ```