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Happy Holidays

2021 was a rough year for many.

Covid has wrought chaos on our physical and mental health. The consequences of latter are yet to be fully seen. We need to stay strong, leave 2021 behind us and look forward into, hopefully, brighter future. The biggest concern for the year ahead of us remains Covid. Will Omicron and Delta prove to be manageable? Omicron seems to be highly transmittable, but less severe than Delta and markets seem to acknowledge that as theywere already in a risk on mood this past week. However, data is still inconclusive and it will take weeks before we can get a clearer picture. 

If it turns out that Omicron does not pose a serious threat we can see a continuation of tightening by central banks to remove stimulus and fight of the inflation. Almost all of the new FOMC voting members are hawks so we expect at least 2 hikes from the Fed (June and December meetings are most likely). It will lead to the yield curve flattening, as short-term rates rise, and then to rise in longer-term yields as investors pull out funds from bonds and move into higher yielding assets such as stocks. This will as well have a negative impact on the USD. Additionally, USD faces a political risk with mid-term elections in the US in November. 

In the Eurozone we expect to see a weak Q1 due to potential lockdowns and Omicron-induced drop in economic activity. Q2 should see an improvement in economic activity while we expect supply chains issues to resolve in H2 and thus bring very strong second half of the year. Commodity currencies should have a better yea based on improved terms of trade. China's 'Two sessions',a meeting of two main political bodies in China, is set to begin on March 4. Talks about economy, trade, military, etc. will be held and policies announced could have a major impact on the global economy. 

We would like to express our gratitude to You for trading with us. Thank You for letting us earn your trust and loyalty. We wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. May it be prosperous and full of joyful moments as well as pips. 

Please note that this analysis should not be used as investing advice as it is only an overview of the economic events influencing the markets.

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