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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 22, 2013)


The U.S. dollar seems to be benefitting from the risk rallies these days as most major economies have been showing signs of a slowdown. 

For now, it appears that weak U.S. data is still positive for the U.S. dollar as the risk off environment boosts the lower-yielding Greenback. Only the U.S. existing home sales is due for today and the reading is projected to rise from 4.98M to 5.02M in March.


Political uncertainty in Italy has been weighing on the euro for the past few trading days as the country still hasn’t formed a unified government. This stalemate could be negative for their economy as it would delay the passage of important laws, particularly those concerning fiscal austerity. Euro zone economic confidence data is set for release in today’s London session and the report is projected to show a stable reading of -24, which would still reflect pessimism.


The pound has retreated against the Greenback on Friday as the risk off trading environment kept GBP/USD’s rallies in check. In fact, a potential reversal is underway as a head and shoulders pattern formed on the 4-hour time frame. Only the speech by monetary policy committee member Paul Tucker is due today and this could weigh on the pound if he talks about openness to further asset purchases. Be wary of early pricing in of expectations for the UK’s Q1 GDP report due Thursday as this would confirm if the UK has entered a triple-dip recession or not.


No major reports are due from Switzerland today as USD/CHF could simply react to US data while EUR/CHF could be sensitive to the goings-on in Europe, particularly to Italy’s political situation.


There are no reports scheduled for release from Japan as traders could simply focus on risk sentiment this week. Bear in mind though that the BOJ will make its interest rate decision later on this week and traders might wish to unload their recent yen positions before the actual event.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)              

There are no reports due from any of the comdoll economies for today as the pairs could simply react to risk sentiment. Commodity prices have been sliding lately as risk aversion has been moving the markets mostly for the past week. For now, weak Chinese data has been weighing on the Australian dollar, along with the drop in gold prices.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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