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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 29, 2013)

Most banks are on a holiday today, paving the way for quiet trading conditions. 

Take note though that it’s the last trading day for the month and the quarter, which could also set the stage for profit-taking moves towards the end of the U.S. session. Bear in mind that low liquidity could result in more volatile price action as well. The U.S. is scheduled to release a few medium-tier reports, including the core PCE price index which is rumored to be the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.


The euro managed to edge slightly higher against the U.S. dollar during yesterday’s trading but it seems the currency is unable to make any further headway. European banks are on holiday today but France is set to print its consumer spending report within today’s London session and possibly report a 0.3% rebound from the previous 0.8% decline.


GBP/USD is testing the major psychological resistance at the 1.5200 area once more as the pair climbed in yesterday’s trading. Without any major market catalysts on tap, it seems unlikely that GBP/USD could make a strong break above the 1.5200 to 1.5250 levels. Do stay on your toes for potential profit-taking around those recent levels.


Swiss banks are on holiday today, which suggests that franc pairs could be in for sideways trading for most of the day. USD/CHF seems set on staying above the .9500 major psychological support while EUR/CHF has been edging lower gradually.

Japanese housing starts came in much stronger than expected at 3.0% for February, better than the estimated 1.0% decline but lower than the previous 5.0% jump in January. No other reports are due from Japan this week as the yen pairs could be vulnerable to profit-taking scenarios and possible movements after Japanese repatriation efforts are booked.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

There are no economic reports due from these commodity-dependent economies for the day, which suggests that AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD could simply take their cues from U.S. reports or might be in for quiet trading until the end of the week.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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