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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 28, 2013)


Markets could be in for a quiet trading day today as there are no top-tier releases from the major economies that could have a significant impact on risk sentiment or a lasting effect on dollar pairs’ movements. 

The U.S. is set to print its final GDP reading for the last quarter of 2012 and an upward revision from the previous 0.1% figure is expected. Analysts are expecting the final figure to come in at 0.5%, which might be positive for the dollar as it would indicate that growth was stronger than initially estimated. Keep an eye out for the release of the Chicago PMI as well, with the report expected to print a drop from 56.8 to 56.5.


The euro zone received mixed data today as Germany printed weaker than expected employment figures yet showed higher than expected retail sales. Consumer spending was up by 0.4% instead of the estimated 0.5% decline while the employment change fell short of expectations of the 2K increase in hiring and posted a 13K drop instead. No other reports are due from the euro zone today as EUR/USD still hangs on to the 1.2800 area.


Only the low-tier index of services was released from the United Kingdom today and the report came in at -0.2% as expected. This is lower compared to the previous reading that came in flat. No other reports are due from the U.K. today yet GBP/USD continues to edge slightly higher.


Japan is set to print its household spending report and CPI data towards the end of today’s U.S. session. Household spending is projected to rise by 0.4% on an annual basis, down from the previous 2.4% reading. The Tokyo core CPI is expected to come in at -0.6%, same as the previous reading, while the national core CPI could print a -0.4% figure. Lower than expected inflation figures could push the BOJ to implement even more aggressive easing policies as soon as possible.

There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests that franc pairs could be in for quiet trading for the rest of the sessions.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Australia and New Zealand are on bank holidays today in observance of Holy Thursday. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP figure and possibly show a 0.1% rebound in growth from the 0.2% dip seen during the previous month. Weaker than expected data could trigger a sharp Loonie selloff as this might place Canada in danger of posting negative growth for the entire quarter.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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