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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 26, 2013)

USD: Neutral


There are a few major reports due from the U.S. today and these might have an impact on dollar pairs’ price action since there are no other top-tier economic events scheduled. 

The U.S. durable goods orders data could show a 3.9% increase in the headline figure and a 0.7% uptick in the core figure. Take note that the previous month’s figures were already revised upwards, showing that manufacturing production has been stronger than initially estimated. In addition, the U.S. will also release the CB consumer confidence report and possibly show a drop from 69.6 to 67.9 for the current month. Lastly, existing home sales are expected to have dropped from 437K to 426K in February.

EUR: Bullish

Cyprus just announced an approved bailout deal yesterday yet the markets seemed underwhelmed from the proposal. The bailout deal basically involves shutting down Cyprus’ second largest bank in order to secured 10 billion EUR worth of bailout funds. What most market watchers weren’t too happy about was the prospect of having some deposits frozen and used to settle debts. This could lead to huge repercussions down the line as it is a stopgap fix to a broader problem, but it was good enough to guarantee additional liquidity for Cyprus.

GBP: Bearish

No major reports are due from the U.K. today as GBP/USD is currently testing a significant resistance level. Recall that the 1.5200 to 1.5250 strong support zone got breached in February when the BOE expressed willingness to implement further easing measures at the expense of stronger inflationary pressures. This pushed the pair to below the 1.4900 handle yet it was able to recover as good news from the U.K. started popping up. Without any reports this week though, pound traders might decide to book their profits off their GBP/USD long trades and trigger a quick selloff back to 1.5000.

CHF: Neutral

No reports due from Switzerland this week, leaving Swissy pairs to trade mostly on SNB intervention concerns and ongoing debt troubles in Cyprus. USD/CHF has found support at the .9400 major support level yet again and appears poised to test .9550. EUR/CHF, meanwhile, has been steadily climbing, yet it has consolidated around 1.4400 for today. Another upside breakout might be in the cards if franc selling pressure remains strong.

JPY: Neutral

New BOJ head Kuroda seems to be disappointing yen bears these days as his speeches fail to contain any details on aggressive easing strategies. Markets have built up high expectations for his dovish remarks as he is a known dove, along with his Deputy Governor. His latest speech simply reiterated the government’s goal of achieving the 2% inflation target for Japan, which left traders hanging. More details are expected when the BOJ actually convenes for their interest rate decision soon.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD): Neutral

RBA Governor Steven’s speech during today’s Asian session was mostly a non-event as AUD/USD continues to consolidate inside a tight rising wedge. There are no reports due from New Zealand and Canada for today, which suggests that consolidation could also be in the cards for NZD/USD and USD/CAD unless U.S. reports post a big surprise.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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