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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 18, 2013)

USD: Bearish

Several weekend gaps were made after the short squeeze took place last week as most major currency pairs opened right where they were prior to the profit-taking on Thursday and Friday. 

This presents an opportunity for weekend gaps to get filled as there are no top-tier economic reports from any of the major economies today. Take note though that the FOMC interest rate decision is coming up midweek and traders could also start pricing in expectations for the event.

EUR: Bullish

The euro underwent a strong rally on Friday as traders continued to book their profits from their recent short trades. However, EUR/USD started the week back below the 1.3000 major psychological level, revealing that the sentiment for the region is still dovish. Nonetheless, with an empty euro zone economic schedule for the day, traders could close the weekend gap and allow the pair to pullback to the 1.3000-1.3050 levels.

GBP: Neutral

After making a strong rally towards the end of the week, GBP/USD is now treading carefully above the 1.5100 major psychological support. There are a bunch of top-tier reports due from the U.K. this week, namely the MPC meeting minutes and claimant count change, along with the CPI and retail sales data. Pound pairs could be in for sideways trading prior to the release of these reports.

AUD: Bullish

There are no reports due from Australia today but traders could start pricing in their expectations for an upbeat RBA monetary policy meeting minutes release tomorrow. Recall that the central bank decided to keep rates unchanged during their recent monetary policy decision as RBA Governor Stevens reiterated that the previous easing efforts are just starting to kick in. After that, Australia started printing strong economic figures, which could mean that the RBA might be more hawkish about the country’s economic prospects this time.

NZD: Neutral

Although last week’s RBNZ monetary policy announcement revealed that Governor Wheeler thought that the Kiwi strength was undermining economic growth, NZD/USD managed to rally from the short squeeze that took place before the end of the week. This week, the downbeat assessment for the New Zealand economy could be highlighted by the GDP release later on this week. Until then, NZD/USD could trade carefully for the next few days.

CAD: Netural

USD/CAD price action is still much choppier compared to most major currency pairs as fundamentals in Canada haven’t been very clear. This week, the Canadian retail sales release should provide more insight on how the economy is performing as consumer spending takes up a huge chunk of overall economic growth.

JPY: Bearish

BOJ Deputy Governor nominee Iwata was finally able to secure enough votes to take his position in the central bank. This means that the doves Kuroda and Iwata are heading the BOJ and that we could expect aggressive easing measures down the line as Japan tries to fight deflation and keep the yen’s value down. Traders just booked their short yen profits recently though, which suggests USD/JPY could pull back to the 94.00 area of interest though before resuming its rally.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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