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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (March 15, 2013)

USD: Neutral

The U.S. dollar lost a lot of ground to its major currency counterparts during yesterday’s trading as we saw a short squeeze, particularly for GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

It seems that the selloffs are no longer able to carry on and most traders simply decided to book profits at the pairs’ previous lows. Data from the U.S. has been mostly strong as the PPI and core PPI came in line with expectations while the initial jobless claims report printed a better than expected figure. Watch out for today’s set of data (CPI, core CPI, Empire State manufacturing index, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure) during the New York session as these could confirm whether the U.S. dollar is still trading on fundamentals or has shifted to risk sentiment.

EUR: Bearish

The euro may have outpaced the U.S. dollar by a huge lead during yesterday’s trading as most traders decided to close out their short euro positions at the pair’s recent lows. However, there’ s a chance that the recent EUR/USD rally might not have enough energy to stay above the 1.3000 major psychological level for long as fundamentals in the euro zone are still very weak. Take note though that EU officials are having their economic summit today until the end of the week, which might be an event risk for euro pairs.

GBP: Bearish

The sterling was also able to outrun the U.S. dollar during yesterday’s trading as GBP/USD successfully broke above the 1.5000 major psychological level and later on the 1.5100 major psychological level. Some say that this was simply a result of a short squeeze for the pair as traders locked in their profits on their short pound positions. After all, fundamentals in the U.K. are still shaky and the BOE is still inclined to implement further easing. If the rally shows signs of fading, watch out for potential reversals around the major and minor psychological levels, possibly during the U.S. session.

AUD: Neutral

It looks like the recently released strong jobs figures from Australia were a fluke as their statisticians reported an error in the report. However, the Australian dollar still managed to rally strongly against the U.S. dollar, mostly because of the recent short squeeze. No major reports are due from Australia for the rest of the day as the pair’s rally could retreat upon reaching the 1.0400 major psychological level, depending on how U.S. economic releases turn out.

NZD: Neutral

Despite the downbeat RBNZ rate statement wherein Wheeler talked about the overvalued Kiwi, the New Zealand dollar was able to pocket huge gains against the U.S. dollar as it rallied back above .8200 during yesterday’s U.S. session. If the effect of the short squeeze lasts until the end of the week, the Kiwi could keep rallying to its previous highs. On the other hand, if the rally fizzles, NZD/USD could be on its way to test the .8200 support once more.

JPY: Bullish

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seems to be having a tough time garnering enough support for Iwata, who he wants to appoint as deputy governor of the BOJ. Iwata is a known dove, just like the newly appointed BOJ head Kuroda, and putting him in position would mean more aggressive policies to ward off deflation and weaken the yen. Unless Abe is able to get enough votes for Iwata’s nomination though, the yen could continue to gain steadily.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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