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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 9, 2013)


The US dollar lost ground to most of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as traders took profits off their positions from last week. 

. EUR/USD rebounded off the 1.2800 area while USD/JPY dipped below the 101.00 mark. There were no reports released from the US yesterday and there are no big ones for today, as traders could position themselves early ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release later on in the week.


The euro made a slight recovery against the US dollar while EUR/JPY moved mostly sideways below 130.00. The resolution of the conflict in Portugal, as the Prime Minister declared a cabinet reshuffle, and the approval of the bailout funds for Greece was enough to boost the euro even though data was weak. German industrial production showed a 1.0% decline instead of the estimated 0.5% dip while its trade balance showed a 14.1 billion EUR surplus, which is lower than the estimated 17.4 billion EUR surplus. There are no reports due from the euro zone today so keep tabs on updates regarding the ongoing ECOFIN meetings.


The pound rebounded from its previous lows against the dollar on Monday, as GBP/USD climbed back above 1.4900. There were no releases from the UK at the start of the week, but the country will be printing its manufacturing production and trade balance figures today. Manufacturing production could rebound by 0.5% after dipping by 0.2% in the previous month while the trade deficit is expected to widen from 8.2 billion GBP to 8.4 billion GBP.


USD/CHF gapped up over the weekend but the gap was quickly filled as the pair retreated on Monday. Swiss joblessness held steady at 3.2% and its retail sales report is due today. On an annualized basis, Swiss retail sales could see a 3.7% increase, better than the previous 3.3% figure. A better than expected reading could support the franc against the dollar and euro today.


The yen may have gained against the dollar on Monday but it lost to its other major counterparts as Japan still showed some signs of weakness. Current account surplus fell from 0.85 trillion JPY to 0.62 trillion JPY as expected while bank lending accelerated from 1.8% to 1.9%. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index slipped from 55.7 to 53.0 instead of just dipping to 55.6. No reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdoll bunch managed to recover against the Greenback on Monday, buoyed by a rebound in commodity prices. The ongoing conflict in Egypt is boosting oil prices, as the possibility of a spillover in other Middle East countries could limit the production and supply of oil. Meanwhile, Canada printed stronger than expected building permits while New Zealand showed an improvement in business confidence. Australian NAB business confidence also saw a return to neutral territory from a -1 reading previously.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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