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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 10, 2013)



Once again, the US dollar proved its strength against the euro and the pound. EUR/USD dipped to fresh lows around the 1.2775 area while GBP/USD fell below the 1.4900 handle.

There were no major reports released from the US yesterday, as traders gear up for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 7:00 pm GMT today. Recall that the Fed announced its plans to reduce bond purchases at the end of the year, causing a huge dollar rally during their rate statement. The minutes of their policy meeting should shed light on the data that led them to this taper plan and if a lot of policymakers support the idea. If the minutes don’t contain much surprises, it could turn out to be a non-event for the dollar pairs.


The euro dropped to new lows against the dollar when euro zone debt concerns started popping up again. An ECB member said that the euro zone should be ready for more capital shortfalls, as the region could be in for more refinancing operations and a much longer period of low interest rates. Meanwhile, Italy suffered a downgrade from S&P, as the credit rating agency cited growth concerns. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today, which suggests that EUR/USD’s movement could be focused on the FOMC minutes.


The pound tumbled against the Greenback once more when British data disappointed. Manufacturing production fell by 0.8% in May, following the 0.2% decline seen last April. This was worse than the estimated 0.3% increase. Industrial production remained flat instead of climbing by 0.3% while the previous month’s figure was revised down to show a 0.1% decline. There are no reports due from the UK today, as traders could pay close attention to the FOMC minutes.


The franc lost ground to the dollar again as Swiss retail sales disappointed. Analysts predicted an increase from 3.3% to 3.7% but the actual figure showed a measly 1.8% annual increase for May. No reports are due from Switzerland today.


The yen had a mixed performance as it gained against the euro and pound but held steady against the dollar. Data from Japan has been mixed, as machine tool orders showed a 12.4% decline while tertiary industry activity showed a stronger than expected 1.2% increase. Consumer confidence came in worse though, as the reading fell from 45.7 to 44.3 instead of improving to 47.2.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies managed to score gains against the dollar, as AUD/USD climbed above the .9200 handle and NZD/USD broke out of its recent range. USD/CAD is holding steady above the 1.0500 handle, as the Loonie is supported by rising oil prices. Australian Westpac consumer confidence posted a 0.1% decline. New Zealand is set to print its Business NZ manufacturing index in the upcoming Asian session. No other reports are due from Canada and Australia.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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