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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 3, 2013)


A couple of top-tier data are due from the US today. These are the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

The ADP report could show a slight improvement from 198K to 203K for March, reflecting a slight increase in hiring. Meanwhile, the ISM report is expected to post a dip from 56.0 to 55.9, showing that manufacturing still expanded during the month. Take note that the US dollar is trading on fundamentals lately, which suggests that strong data could boost the dollar while weak figures could spark a selloff.


There are no major reports from the euro zone today, which could suggest quiet trading for euro pairs. Take note though that there were several weak data released from euro zone’s top economies recently, as Spain and Italy both printed weak manufacturing PMIs, suggesting that growth isn’t so strong in some of the large nations in the region.


Another potential pound selloff could be in the cards if the British construction PMI disappoints. Yesterday, the weaker than expected manufacturing PMI set off a massive round of pound selling, pushing GBP/USD to the 1.5100 area. The construction report could print an improvement from 46.8 to 47.7 but a disappointment is likely since mortgage approvals are down in the past few months.


Weaker than expected Swiss SVME PMI is lifting franc pairs for now as there are no major reports on Switzerland’s schedule. Keep an eye out for euro zone data or US reports when trading EUR/CHF or USD/CHF.


Earlier today, Prime Minister Abe and BOJ heads Kuroda and Iwata spoke in front of the Japanese parliament and outlined some of their plans for monetary policy. They are considering scrapping the bank note rule, which is a limit on the total government asset purchases. If this happens, the BOJ could have more scope for easing as they could decide to increase asset purchases, extend the duration of longer-term bonds, or implement an open-ended asset purchase program just like the Fed. The decision is still up to the rest of the BOJ policymakers and we’ll hear more of this on the BOJ rate statement tomorrow.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies managed to stay resilient in yesterday’s trading as the 7.4% rise in ANZ commodity prices boosted these currencies. In addition, Australia’s trade balance came in strong as the deficit shrank to 0.18 billion AUD. No other reports are due from the commodity-dependent economies for the rest of the day, which suggests that US data could have a large impact on the price action of AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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