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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 25, 2013)


The U.S. dollar lost a bit of ground to its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading as the U.S. durable goods orders data missed expectations. 

The headline figure showed a 5.7% drop, almost twice the estimated 2.9% decrease, while the core version of the report printed a 1.4% decline. This reveals that economic activity in the U.S. has been losing steam, and this may be a reason for the Fed to keep their current easing programs in place for much longer than expected. For today, there are no top-tier reports due from the U.S.


Germany’s Ifo business climate figure missed expectations for the current month as the reading fell from 106.7 to 104.4, lower than the estimated dip to 106.4. As it turns out, sentiment weakened because of the impact of cold weather on businesses in euro zone’s largest economy. Some say that this bleak report is grounds for potential rate cut talks when the ECB meets in the coming days, yet it didn’t trigger a long-lasting selloff for EUR/USD because of the rally in European equities yesterday. Markets seemed to pay more attention to the end of the political stalemate in Italy, which turned out to be positive for the shared currency.


Today is a big day for the pound pairs as the U.K. will release the much-awaited Q1 2013 GDP reading. The report is expected to show a 0.1% uptick following the previous 0.3% decline in economic growth, which would mean that the U.K. could narrowly escape a triple-dip recession. In this case, pound pairs could stage relief rallies as a positive GDP reading would reduce the need for further QE from the BOE. On the other hand, another negative reading would trigger a sharp selloff as it would put pressure on the BOE to ease further.


There are no reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests we’ll see quiet trading conditions for USD/CHF since there’s no major data from the U.S. as well.


Japan has no top-tier reports set for release today, which could mean that the yen could simply trade on risk sentiment for the rest of the day. Keep an eye out for potential profit taking prior to the next set of reports from Japan and the BOJ rate decision scheduled in tomorrow’s early Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies managed to recover against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as overall risk sentiment improved. Australian CPI came in weaker than expected at only 0.4% instead of the estimated 0.7% increase, but was still able to provide support for the Aussie. Both Australia and New Zealand have bank holidays today, which could mean quiet trading for AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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