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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 24, 2013)


The U.S. dollar reigned supreme against most of its counterparts, particularly the euro and the Australian dollar, as risk aversion stayed in the markets in yesterday’s trading sessions.

Even the U.S. printed weaker than expected medium-tier data with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and flash manufacturing PMI for the country both fell short of consensus. The U.S. will release durable goods orders data later today and more disappointments could lead to more safe-haven rallies.


PMI reports from the euro zone were generally mixed as France printed higher than expected manufacturing and services numbers while Germany’s mixed expectations. The region’s overall manufacturing and services PMIs remained below the 50.0 level, which meant that the industries contracted during the period. For today, only the German Ifo business climate report is on tap and a decline is expected, which might keep weighing the euro down.


The CBI industrial orders expectations came in weaker than expected at -25 versus -14, triggering a pound selloff. For today, only the realized sales report is due and the figure is projected to rise from 0 to 7, but another disappointment could worsen the pound’s decline.


The Swiss trade balance came in better than expected yesterday yet the franc sold off heavily against the U.S. dollar when the euro zone PMI figures disappointed. For today, the UBS consumption indicator is set for release from Switzerland and another weak figure could push USD/CHF even higher. The reading landed at 1.26 last time and an improvement could allow the Swissy to recover.


Yen pairs have been trading carefully lately as traders await the BOJ interest rate decision tomorrow. Only the corporate services price index was released from Japan recently and the report chalked up a stronger than expected figure. It still printed a 0.2% decline, which was smaller than the estimated 0.4% drop, while the previous period’s reading was revised down to 0.0%. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The Australian dollar suffered a sharp selloff this morning after yesterday’s quick retracement when the quarterly CPI missed expectations. The report showed a mere 0.4% uptick instead of the projected 0.7% rise, which is still higher than the recent 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, Canada printed stronger than expected retail sales and core retail sales data, which allowed USD/CAD to stay around its current levels. The RBNZ kept rates on hold at 2.50% as expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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