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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 1, 2013)


 Traders are now back from the shortened trading week last week, which suggests we could see more action on the charts for the coming days. 

Today, the U.S. will release its ISM manufacturing PMI for March and possibly show that the figure stayed at 54.2 for the period. A higher than expected reading would reflect a stronger expansion in the industry, which would be positive for the U.S. economy and possibly the U.S. dollar. A weaker than expected result could hint at slower manufacturing activity, which could be negative for the U.S. dollar.



 European banks are still on a holiday today, which could mean euro pairs are in for quiet trading once more. Take note though that Cyprus banks are set to reopen this week and it would be the start of deposit taxes and withdrawal limits. So far, no bank run has been reported but it is likely that flight of capital will be seen, particularly for foreign investors with large deposits in the country. If that’s the case, the euro could head further south in the next few trading days.



 Banks in the United Kingdom are still on holiday for today so pound pairs might see more sideways movement for the next few hours. Traders might want to start pricing in their expectations for this week’s BOE rate decision and business PMIs, which could dictate pound price action for the near term. The BOE is expected to keep rates and bond purchases unchanged but we might hear of dovish remarks from King if the manufacturing and construction PMI releases this week turn out worse than expected.



 There are no reports due from Switzerland today as USD/CHF and EUR/CHF continue to trade carefully. When trading these pairs, make sure you keep tabs on updates regarding Cyprus’ banking situation or U.S. economic data (ISM manufacturing PMI) to figure out where they could be headed.



 Japan just released a couple of weaker than expected figures during today’s Asian session, which could weigh on the yen for the next few hours. The Tankan manufacturing index came in at -8 from -12 instead of rising to -7. The non-manufacturing component rose from 4 to 6, short of the consensus at 8. These show that manufacturing and services activity in Japan is weaker than projected for the first quarter of 2013.


Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

 There are no reports due from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand for today. China just printed weaker than expected manufacturing PMI for March as the reading climbed from 50.1 to 50.6 instead of the projected 51.6 reading. Meanwhile, the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI came closer in line with the consensus of 51.7 as it logged in a 51.6 reading for March.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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