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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 09, 2018)


The US dollar was able to take advantage of risk-off flows as stock markets tanked once more.

Equity indices were down roughly 4% mostly due to the short volatility trade, another pending government shutdown, and global tightening prospects. US data was stronger than expected as the initial jobless claims figure improved from 230K to 221K versus the 232K forecast.


Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected as Germany printed a smaller trade surplus of 21.4 billion EUR versus the earlier 22.3 billion EUR figure and the projected 21.5 billion EUR surplus. Today has French and Italian industrial production numbers on tap and strong data could keep ECB hike expectations in play.


The pound got a strong boost from a hawkish BOE statement as the committee expressed their intention to tighten at a faster pace than initially expected. The BOE also upgraded growth and inflation forecasts, underscoring their hiking bias. UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers are due next. The former could show a 0.3% uptick while the latter might see a 0.9% decline.


The franc was the king of pips as it raked in safe-haven gains more than the dollar and yen. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the unemployment rate. Analysts are expecting to see no change from the 3.0% reading.


The yen was also in the top spot due to risk-off flows stemming from the stock market selloff. Data from Japan was actually weaker than expected as the Economy Watchers Sentiment index fell from 53.9 to 49.9 versus the 53.7 consensus. The tertiary index is due next and analysts expect to see a 0.2% uptick. Market sentiment is likely to keep pushing yen pairs around today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a weak spot because of the risk-off moves in the financial markets. The Aussie was strongest hit due to RBA head Lowe's remarks and weak data in the earlier session. Today Australia reported a 2.3% drop in home loans while Chinese inflation reports came in line with expectations of a dip in price levels. Canada's jobs reports are lined up next, with the employment change figure expected to post a 10.3K gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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