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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 11, 2018)


The dollar drew some support to its lower-yielding rivals but caved to comdoll strength on signs of cooling tensions between China and the US.

PPI figures beat expectations at 0.3% gains for both the core and headline figure, spurring positive expectations for the CPI release. The FOMC minutes are also up for release and could bring extra volatility for dollar pairs.


The euro was on weaker footing owing to downbeat data, with both Italian and French retail sales missing expectations. However, the shared currency drew some support from ECB commentary as Coeure mentioned that the QE program could be wound down by the end of the year. ECB head Draghi has a speech coming up.


The pound was also supported by upbeat central bank commentary as hawkish member McCafferty said in an interview with Reuters that they shouldn't take their time with tightening. There were no reports out of the UK then while today has manufacturing and industrial production numbers. A 0.2% uptick is seen for the latter while the former could show a 0.4% increase.


The franc gave up ground as risk appetite improved in recent sessions. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so sentiment could continue to push franc pairs around.


The yen was also on weaker footing, particularly against the commodity currencies. Data from Japan was mostly upbeat as the core machinery orders report printed a 2.1% gain versus the estimated 2.6% slide. Looking ahead, yen pairs could take their cues from sentiment and bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew support from the conciliatory tone of both China and the US as leaders seemed more open to trade talks. Crude oil stayed supported on talks of $80 per barrel oil despite the surprise build in API stockpiles. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected while Australia reported a 0.6% drop in Westpac consumer sentiment, but this didn't deter the Aussie from its climb. There are no major reports from the comdolls next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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