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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 8, 2013)

USD

Better than expected jobs data boosted the dollar against its counterparts on Friday, as the NFP figure came in at 195K. 

This was higher than the estimated 163K reading while the previous month’s figure saw an upward revision to 195K. However, the jobless rate held steady at 7.6% instead of improving to 7.5% as more and more Americans returned to the labor force. For today, there are no major reports due from the US.

EUR

The euro sold off heavily on Friday, still weighed down by the dovish ECB rhetoric during the previous day. As Draghi said, euro zone interest rates will remain low for an extended period. It didn’t help that Portugal was still undergoing political trouble while Greece’s next set of bailout funds is at risk. The Troika will be evaluating whether Portugal met its requirements to secure the next batch of bailout funds today, and this could have a huge impact on the euro. Eurogroup meetings are also taking place today and Germany will be releasing its industrial production report.

GBP
The pound was one of the weakest currencies last week, as BOE Governor Carney clarified that there will be no rate cut in the next couple of years. There are no reports due from the UK today, as the downbeat monetary policy statement could continue to drag the pound lower.

CHF

The Swiss franc reached the .9650 minor psychological resistance against the dollar last Friday, as strong US NFP data boosted the Greenback. Switzerland will release its unemployment rate today and possibly show no change from the current 3.2% rate. An increase in joblessness though could push USD/CHF even higher.

JPY

The yen weakened against the dollar on Friday but managed to gain against the euro and pound. There were no major reports released from Japan then, but the country reported a 0.62 trillion JPY current account balance for May as expected. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is due from Japan today, and a higher than expected figure could help keep the yen’s losses in check.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

There were no major releases from Australia and New Zealand on Friday, but Canada was able to release its jobs data and Ivey PMI. Canada lost only 0.4K jobs in June, better than the estimated 4.2K decline while the jobless rate held steady at 7.1%. As for the Ivey PMI, the figure posted a sharp decline from 63.1 to 55.3 instead of just dipping to 59.6. Only the Canadian building permits is due from the comdoll economies for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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