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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 31 – Jan 4)

Please note that due to the New Year holidays, liquidity in the markets will be thin which can potentially lead to increased volatility and higher spreads, be sure to plan your trading accordingly.

USD

This week we will have the final PMI numbers for the month of December and on Friday the NFP data will be announced.

After last month’s rise of 155k, this month is expected to come in at 178k. Unemployment is expected to remain the same. Once again, Average Hourly Earnings will be the data to watch and it is expected it will come out at 3.0% y/y vs 3.1% y/y the previous month.

Important news for USD:

Wednesday:

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI

Thursday:

  • ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • ISM Manufacturing Employment

Friday:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls
  • Unemployment Rate
  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • Market Services PMI
  • Market Composite PMI

EUR

ECB has published its Economic Bulletin in which they stated that they see ongoing expansion in the economy but with downward risks increasing. They acknowledged that global economic activity is expected to decelerate next year. Worries regarding growth in Euro Area appear to be mostly external which can give EUR a small boost. Italy vote on the budget in the Parliament is expected to be by December 29.

This week we will have final PMI numbers for the month of December as well as employment data from Germany and inflation numbers for the Euro Zone. It is expected that headline inflation figure will tick down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y the previous month while core number will rise to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y the previous month.

Important news for EUR:

Wednesday:

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (Germany, France, Italy)
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • Market Services (Germany, France, Italy)
  • Market Composite (Germany, France, Italy)
  • Market Services PMI
  • Market Composite PMI
  • Unemployment Change (Germany)
  • Unemployment Rate (Germany)
  • CPI

JPY

BOJ Governer Kuroda stated that BOJ will continue with their easing policy while monitoring both its positive and side effects. The unemployment rate for the month of November came in at 2.5% vs 2.4% as expected with Job-To-Applicant ratio coming in at 1.63 as expected. Headline CPI for the month of December in the Tokyo are came in at 0.3% y/y vs 0.5% as expected. Drop in the headline number is attributed to the falling oil prices. CPI excluding Food and Energy, which is the measure closest to US CPI, came in at 0.6% y/y as expected. Good news is that it didn’t drop as the headline number, Bad news is that the number is nowhere near the 2% target. Retail sales for the month of November fell -1.0% m/m vs -0.4% m/m as expected. Yields on the 10-year JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) went into negative territory for the first time since September 2017.

This week we will have the final manufacturing PMI data for the month of December.

Important news for JPY:

Friday:

  • Nikkei Manufacturing PMI

Important news for GBP:

Wednesday:

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI

Thursday:

  • Markit Construction PMI

Friday:

  • Markit Services PMI

Important news for AUD:

Monday:

  • Manufacturing PMI (China)
  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (China)

Friday:

  • Caixin Services PMI (China)

Important news for NZD:

Wednesday:

  • GDT Price Index

Important news for CAD:

Wednesday:

  • Markit Manufacturing PMI

Friday:

  • Employment Change
  • Unemployment Rate

You can follow all economic events on the Economic Calendar page on our Website. MT4 server time is set to GMT + 2 and if you need assistance converting MT4 server time to your local time you can use some of the online time converters such as WorldTimeBuddy.

Please note that this analysis should not be used as investing advice as it is only an overview of the economic events influencing the markets.
Please remember that MT4.VAR. and MT4.ECN. accounts have Market Execution. Please note how Execution works during high impact news and other times of low liquidity.

TradersWay team wishes you a Happy New Year and good luck with your trading in the coming year!

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2018 Christmas and New Years Holiday Schedule

Over the next week, market activity and liquidity may be lower than usual. This may result in higher spread...

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