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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 8, 2013)


The U.S. economy showed weaker than expected jobs growth for March as the NFP report printed an 88K figure instead of the projected 198K increase. 

The previous figure was revised up from 236K to 268K while the jobless rate ticked down from 7.7% to 7.6%, mostly because of a result of a drop in participation rate. This jobs report resulted in a sharp dollar selloff as this emphasized the Fed’s decision to keep monetary policy unchanged and refrain from withdrawing asset purchases. There are no reports due from the U.S. today as the dollar could recover from its losses last Friday.



Despite the drop in euro zone retail sales, the euro was able to rally against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen on Friday as the U.S. posted weak NFP data while the yen continued to weaken after the recent BOJ decision.  Only the euro zone Sentix investor confidence and German industrial production data are on today’s schedule, which suggests quiet trade for the euro. Take note that EUR/USD has reached the 1.3000 major psychological level and this week’s market sentiment and euro zone events could determine if this resistance mark will hold or not.



The pound staged a strong rally on Friday as it took advantage of yen and dollar weaknesses. The U.K. Halifax HPI came in line with consensus as it clocked in a 0.2% increase in house prices, lower than the previous month’s 0.5% growth. There are no reports due from the U.K. today, which suggests that GBP/USD’s and GBP/JPY’s rally could continue.



USD/CHF broke below the key .9400 major psychological support level on Friday when the U.S. printed a weak NFP figure. A potential retest could be in the cards for today as there are no major reports due from the U.S. or Switzerland.



The Japanese yen continued its losing streak on the heels of the BOJ’s aggressive easing announcement on Thursday. USD/JPY is currently trading above the 98.00 handle, despite the weak U.S. NFP figure, and could be headed for the 100.00 mark this week. There are no major releases from Japan for today, but the BOJ minutes are set for release during tomorrow’s early Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)


The Loonie suffered a sharp selloff against the Greenback on Friday when Canada showed a weak jobs report. Joblessness increased by 54.5K in March, pushing the unemployment rate up from 7.0% to 7.2% during the month. Trade balance also missed expectations as it showed a 1.0 billion CAD deficit instead of the expected 0.2 billion CAD surplus. However, the Ivey PMI beat expectations as the figure jumped from 51.1 to 61.6, outpacing the estimate at 52.4. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies for today, which suggests that the trends from Friday could continue.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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